USD / CAD exchange rate prediction – The dollar weakened against the loonie


The dollar reversed against the loonie and fell. Yields also fell on weaker than expected jobless claims data. Markets are now adjusting the Fed meeting on Wednesday. US Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates unchanged and to double the pace of quantitative easing.

Technical analysis

The dollar traded lower against the loonie. The exchange rate reversed thanks to long term resistance near an ascending trendline, but completed the highs of the trading session. Support is near the 10 day moving average at 1.2760. Further support is seen near the 50 day moving average at 1.2552. Short term momentum turned negative, Rapid Stochastic generated a cross sell signal. Medium term momentum turned positive as the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) index generated a cross buy signal. The MACD histogram prints in positive territory with an upward trajectory that indicates a higher exchange rate.

Employment data slipped

The first jobless claims reached 206,000, above the expected gain of 195,000 of 18,000 from the 188,000 revised upward the previous week. According to Commerce Department figures, the four-week moving average was 203,750, the lowest level since Nov. 15, 1969. Claims continue, whose data is one week behind figure overall, fell from 154,000 to 1.845 million, the lowest since March 14, 2020.


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